What is an El Nino or El Nina Southern Oscillation Cycle?
Based on the 2015 record-breaking rainfalls and passive Hurricane season Florida experienced it’s safe to say we have been in an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The El Niño cycle actually began in March of 2015. The climate impacts are typically not clearly noticeable until early fall and winter. ENSO cycle has three phases; most widely known are El Niño and La Niña representing the opposite extremes of the Southern Oscillation cycle.
The ENSO cycle simply refers to persistent shifts in global wind circulation patterns that warm or cool the waters along the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean resulting in abnormal weather, temperature, and rainfall patterns throughout the world. El Niño episodes reflect periods of exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures. What this typically means for Floridians is a wetter winter season with an increased threat of tornadoes especially in January, February, and March. La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea-surface temperatures resulting in below average rainfall. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last approximately 9-12 months.
During the Neutral Phase, the ocean surface is warmest in the west and coldest in the east throughout the year resulting in relatively normal weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño has an 80 percent chance of lasting into early spring 2016. During this El Niño cycle the Pacific jet stream, originating over the Pacific Ocean, will dip further into the south bringing more rain during Florida’s dry season. That is right more rain is coming!